Project Work Packages

Ecocycles research is carried in a number of work packages as detailed below. This allows us to approach the diverse concepts, research questions and aims of the project in a systematic way.

WP1: Patterns and correlates of changing vole dynamics.

 
We will test the hypothesis that recent observed changes in small rodent population dynamics in Europe represent a geographically extensive syndrome that is linked to some common environmental factor(s). This will be based on a spatially and temporally extensive set of rodent population time series data, collected by us and others, analysed in a common framework. We will seek site-specific correlates of changes in dynamics, and commonalities between sites that would suggest which ecosystem processes are responding to environmental change (land use and climate).

WP2: Impact of changes in prey dynamics on predator demography. 

Changes in the dynamics of predators that may reflect prey dynamics will be characterised primarily using long term surveys that permit a full characterisation of the demographic response of raptors to vole dynamics. We will use extensive datasets of Tawny owls and Montagu harriers as model systems to identify the demographic processes underlying how numbers of these predators are influenced by changes in prey availability. This will help us to understand how evolved life-history strategies in predators might be disrupted by changes in prey dynamics and also allow us to predict the responses of other predator species.

WP3: Predicting of response of predators with different life histories to change in prey dynamics. 

Specialist vole predators that exhibit high breeding success only in years of very high rodent density (e.g. arctic fox, Montagu’s harriers in France) are expected to be particularly affected by the absence of springs with high vole abundance. In contrast, generalist species or populations may be expected to survive, as they are able to exploit a wider range of prey densities (red fox, marsh harrier). We want to establish which vole predator species are likely to benefit or suffer from recent changes in prey dynamics by linking the variation of vital rates of the predator to changes in the abundance and distribution of small rodents. We will link elements such as survival, breeding success and recruitment of predators to changes in rodent dynamics in response to climate and land use as studied in WP1. Results form WP2 will be also be added to these models.
The models will be used to identify predator species that will be particularly vulnerable in the face of changes in prey dynamics and allow us to devise and evaluate species-specific conservation actions.

WP4: Ecosystem de-assembly under the joint impact of climate change and land use.

Voles and lemming populations with high amplitude cyclic dynamics represent key nodes in the food web, in the sense that they mediate strong impacts through both direct and indirect interactions. A general lesson from food web ecology is that indirect interactions can induce cascading impacts with wide-reaching consequences for the structure and functioning of the ecosystem. In this WP we focus on two such effects mediated by changed small rodent dynamics.

Objectives:Predicting the effect of changed indirect trophic interactions such as spill-over predation on alternative prey species. Quantifying the impact of grazing and disturbance dynamics on plant communities.Exploring the community-level impact of management options.

WP5 Improving and disseminating policy-relevant evidence-based conservation.

This project has profound implications for biodiversity conservation and related policies. From our case studies we will build an evidence base to show how environmental change affects small herbivore dynamics and the potentially dramatic consequences of these changes for ecosystems and the people who are dependent on them. In terms of the conservation implications of our project, we will focus on: i) the way that changing management practices will affect the abundance of top predators, many of which are threatened and protected by legislation; ii) the implications of changing herbivore and predator numbers on other species of conservation or economic concern; and iii) the implications of changing numbers of prey and their predators for stakeholder communities and the potential biodiversity conflicts that may arise.

Objectives:Knowledge exchange & research-policy pathways. To aid knowledge exchange, we shall establish a National Consultation Forum (NCF) in each country comprising the researchers, key stakeholders, and policymakers. These fora will meet annually to discuss the aims of the project, the design of the work, the findings and their implications for stakeholders and for policies.Dissemination of results. The results from this WP will have clear implications for policy development by working with National Consultation Fora to build a robust evidence-base for each country and analysing alternative models for research-policy pathways.